Election Watch – How did Foreign Interference Impact the Canadian Election?

Election Watch is a series of reports based on our ongoing monitoring of online narratives promoting extremism, violence, and polarization before and after the Canadian federal election.

Political interference from foreign governments was a major concern during this year’s Canadian federal election. Warnings about the threats of interference were issued by journalists, academics, and government bodies such as the Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections (SITE) task force. Alleged instances of covert foreign interference operations targeting diaspora communities were brought to light by CSIS and the Globe and Mail. The election itself was centred around which political leader was best positioned to respond to threats to Canadian sovereignty from US President Donald Trump.

Concerns about foreign interference are warranted and should be taken seriously, especially during election periods. The threat of foreign interference in Canadian elections has a longstanding history. However, the actual impact of foreign interference on influencing opinions or affecting electoral outcomes is difficult to assess accurately. It can also be difficult to trace where interference operations come from. In the digital age, influence activities have become borderless, and can spread in spaces completely unrelated to the original target of the influence operation. So what do we know about foreign interference, and how did it affect Canada’s election?

What is foreign interference and foreign influence?

Foreign interference has been a major topic of concern globally since the Russian government attempted to influence the 2016 American presidential election—but what really counts as “foreign interference” or “foreign influence?”

According to the Canadian government, “foreign interference” refers to attempts by foreign actors to push their own strategic objectives “to the detriment of Canada’s national interests.” Interference can include attempts to control diaspora communities, spread harmful disinformation, and influence government officials. It includes “covert” or hidden methods to influence groups, such as social media manipulation or bot farms. “Foreign influence” is a broader term that includes covert methods as well as legitimate “overt” or transparent methods of advocating interests like diplomacy.

In Canada, the federal government recently concluded a public inquiry into foreign interference following reports that the Chinese government attempted to influence the 2019 and 2021 federal elections, among other incidents. The inquiry found that while foreign interference has been a longstanding issue in Canada, it is now easier than ever for foreign governments to spread propaganda and disinformation due to the pervasiveness of social media. As a result, more Canadians are paying attention to foreign interference—and rightfully so. Attempts at influencing or interfering in another country’s elections undermines that country’s democracy and sovereignty.

Foreign interference and influence in Canada’s federal election

This year’s Canadian federal election saw multiple alleged foreign interference incidents. SITE flagged an information operation on WeChat that aimed to influence Chinese Canadians’ perceptions of Prime Minister Mark Carney as a potential instance of “covert influence.” The Globe and Mail also reported that former Liberal MP Chandra Arya had been disqualified from running due to his relationship to the Indian government. Two MPs stepped down from their campaigns after they made comments effectively endorsing transnational repression strategies from India and China, respectively. Additionally, alleged interference in the 2022 Conservative leadership race by the Indian Government came to light. Trump’s annexation threats could be classified as an example of more “overt” influence over the election.

Discussions around foreign interference happened across all platforms during the election period, including both fringe and mainstream groups. Some more disenfranchised groups claimed that the election was rigged to favour the Liberal party, alleging that President Trump’s comments about having an easier time dealing with a Liberal leader were an “endorsement” of Prime Minister Mark Carney. These groups also questioned whether there was a deeper motive from President Trump, alleging the endorsement of the incumbent party will keep Canada’s economy weak and ensure that the country cannot compete with American energy exports. Other social media debates spurred by foreign interference incidents centred on Carney’s ties to China and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s ties to India. More mainstream discourse was centered around the extent to which President Trump’s influence affected the outcome of this election, considering how Canadian patriotism has risen in the wake of tariffs and annexation threats.

The impacts of foreign interference and influence

States have sought to influence groups beyond their borders throughout history. “Influence” is not limited to mis- and disinformation—it also includes coercion through military and economic control, usually referred to as “hard power,” and persuasive rhetoric through cultural and diplomatic influence, usually referred to as “soft power.” The goal of influence has not changed; rather, the scale of influence operations has increased dramatically for relatively little cost through the use of online social media influence operations such as bot farms.

Despite the lengthy history, measuring the impacts of foreign interference in large-scale changing of opinions or beliefs is still in its infancy. While we have unprecedented ability to distribute information, the means to study influence operations online at scale can be difficult, especially as social media platforms like Meta and X remove access to their APIs. Additionally, much of the existing research has only been conducted on Facebook and X—a narrow scope in comparison to the broader information ecosystem, which also includes private group chats, shortform videos, and other social media and communication tools.

Further, both Facebook and X have undergone significant changes over the last few years that have had ripple effects on the information landscape. For example, Meta no longer allows news on any of its social platforms in Canada, and X’s demographic has changed significantly since Elon Musk took over in October 2022 (the effects of which are still under-researched). Many users have moved to video content on TikTok, Instagram, or YouTube, which changes how information is spread, and makes content more difficult to analyze.

The impact of foreign influence is more likely to be felt by diasporas or other communities with ethnic, cultural, or economic ties to the perpetrating state. These impacts can be felt directly through transnational repression—when a state harasses diasporas beyond its borders—or indirectly, as communities face increased intolerance or racism when bilateral ties between Canada and their countries of origin sour. For example, despite the inquiry into foreign interference’s findings that Chinese influence did not ultimately affect the results of the 2019 and 2021 elections, people of Chinese heritage in Canada have faced both increased transnational repression by China and increased anti-Asian racism.

Our research on the effects of transnational repression showed that diasporas have heightened feelings of insecurity when concerns about foreign interference are raised in the media, unless they have access to broader social support. It is thus key to support efforts to increase media literacy as well as efforts to increase tolerance towards marginalized groups in Canada and keep our society free, safe, and equal for all.

Strengthening resilience to foreign interference and influence

The impact of foreign interference on individual opinion and voter behaviours is difficult to measure. Nevertheless, the election showed how the presence of foreign interference alone can shape political discourse. Further, many Canadians feel the impact of foreign interference in the form of intolerance, racism, or transnational repression. These factors stoke societal fissures, divide communities, and lower trust in political institutions, thereby threatening Canada’s sovereignty.

Canadian citizens deserve to cast their votes without external forces attempting to influence their decisions. To protect these rights, we need to equip Canadians with the knowledge and resources to identify and report foreign interference in all forms. We must also push for better protections for victims of transnational repression and strengthen avenues to report foreign interference to make our democracy more resilient and protect our sovereignty.

To learn more about our work on foreign interference and transnational repression and its impacts on Canadians, or to share your experience, check out our website Dangers Without Borders.